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Oct 9, 2012
10/12
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romney trailed in this survey by 9 points before the debate. so that's a big shift toward mitt romney and away from barack obama in that poll. like wise in the new gallup poll, mr. romney polled even with the president after the debate erasing a 5-point advantage for the president. we have new polls from the swing states and near swing states. polls that include reaction to the first debate. in wisconsin today the president leads by just two points. that's according to a relatively left-leaning poll. that particular poll previously showed the president having a 7-point lead before the debate. in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives
romney trailed in this survey by 9 points before the debate. so that's a big shift toward mitt romney and away from barack obama in that poll. like wise in the new gallup poll, mr. romney polled even with the president after the debate erasing a 5-point advantage for the president. we have new polls from the swing states and near swing states. polls that include reaction to the first debate. in wisconsin today the president leads by just two points. that's according to a relatively left-leaning...
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Oct 2, 2012
10/12
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the other surprising thing from the first debate was that the name mitt romney was never mentioned in that first debate. mitt romney who was the governor of massachusetts who introduced scott brown, who once ran for senate himself, whose campaign senior adviser is also scott brown's campaign senior adviser, and the guy who is the republican nominee for president, he was never mentioned in the first debate. but tonight that oversight was remedied. >> this is a quote from you. when it it comes to dealing with economic issue, there's no one i would trust more than mitt romney. would you be an ally yb. >> you pointed out about the dysfunctionalty of washington. when i went down there, i thought it was dysfunctional and when i got there, it's worse. you see it every day. that's why i'm taking great pride and speaking to the independent voters of massachusetts. i vote about 50% with my party and 50% with the democratic party. that's different than what professor warren would do. i don't work for anybody. i don't work for president obama or mitt romney or harry reid. >> it is striking that y
the other surprising thing from the first debate was that the name mitt romney was never mentioned in that first debate. mitt romney who was the governor of massachusetts who introduced scott brown, who once ran for senate himself, whose campaign senior adviser is also scott brown's campaign senior adviser, and the guy who is the republican nominee for president, he was never mentioned in the first debate. but tonight that oversight was remedied. >> this is a quote from you. when it it...
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Oct 18, 2012
10/12
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romney gave no answer about the policy at the debate. that's when he instead wandered off into the now-infamous binders anecdote. his campaign followed up last night. ed gillespie said, "mitt romney was opposed to the lily ledbetter fair act at the time." but now they sent out another change, in the form of a correction, mr. gillespie saying, no, no, no, i was wrong, when i said he opposed the lily ledbetter act, he never weighed in on it. so the problem for mr. romney last night, it was for the purpose of avoiding a direct statement about that policy that he wandered into his anecdote about binders full of women. he thought that was safer territory than actually addressing the question. the problem for him today, even the awkwardly distracting anecdote about binders turns out to be poison for him. that's next. >>> i went to a number of women's groups and said, can you help us find folks, and they brought us whole binders full of women. >> which was very uncomfortable. joining us now for the interview is shannon o'brien. she ran against
romney gave no answer about the policy at the debate. that's when he instead wandered off into the now-infamous binders anecdote. his campaign followed up last night. ed gillespie said, "mitt romney was opposed to the lily ledbetter fair act at the time." but now they sent out another change, in the form of a correction, mr. gillespie saying, no, no, no, i was wrong, when i said he opposed the lily ledbetter act, he never weighed in on it. so the problem for mr. romney last night, it...
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Oct 11, 2012
10/12
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romney won the first debate. is that intentional? are you trying to lower expectations about your guy getting a better showing at the second debate? >> you know, what we said before the last debate is exactly what you just said. five out of the six last challengers won the first debate. so we went into that, despite, you know, everybody's public proclamations as the underdog, and we're realistic, that mitt romney had a good night that night. he had a great performance. that's just what it was. it was a performance. and as the president said, he said a lot of things that weren't true. he also said a lot of things trying to move away from some of his positions. then doubled down on some of the bad positions. some of the things that would take us back to the things that would crash our economy. so he gave us a lot to work with and we're glad he did that on a national stage. but as the president said and as we've been saying for days now, we understand, we've looked at the tapes. we understand that there's more that we can do to hold mit
romney won the first debate. is that intentional? are you trying to lower expectations about your guy getting a better showing at the second debate? >> you know, what we said before the last debate is exactly what you just said. five out of the six last challengers won the first debate. so we went into that, despite, you know, everybody's public proclamations as the underdog, and we're realistic, that mitt romney had a good night that night. he had a great performance. that's just what it...
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Oct 24, 2012
10/12
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you can see the president's chances improving again and romney's declining after the second debate in the middle of october. will obama's win last night help him further in the polls? his campaign marathon help get the bump? nate silver today did underscore how important even a small post debate bump could be in deciding the election. nate says, if mr. obama's head to head polling were two points higher, he could be a considerably clearer favorite. a one-point bounce would bring him to 80%. so it's time to wait and watch the polls. but there is another measure we can look at right now. something that's not predictive. it's not about the future. it's something that is concrete about what is already done. what is already locked in. and we have got that empirical measure of what's going on in this race here next, exclusively. >>> in reporting on efforts to make it hard tore vote and harder to register to vote over the course of this past year or two, we found we're seeing a lot of confusing data about who actually has been abled to register. especially in the swing states this year. a pr
you can see the president's chances improving again and romney's declining after the second debate in the middle of october. will obama's win last night help him further in the polls? his campaign marathon help get the bump? nate silver today did underscore how important even a small post debate bump could be in deciding the election. nate says, if mr. obama's head to head polling were two points higher, he could be a considerably clearer favorite. a one-point bounce would bring him to 80%. so...
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Oct 3, 2012
10/12
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and what will effect the debate tomorrow is mr. ryan in these comments makes the same case romney was making when he made the devastating 47% remarks. in ryan's case, he doesn't use the 47%. he picks a different figure. for him the figure is 30%. you may remember ryan himself his response to that disastrous tape of mr. romney at the fundraiser was that romney was, quote, obviously inarticulate in making his point about the proportion of americans who are dependent on the government, victims and not worth his time. here's how paul ryan makes that same point. >> the point is we are reaching a fiscal tipping point. the moral tipping point is even worse. the moral tipping point is before too long we could become a society we were never ever intended to be. we could become a society where the net majority of americans are takers, not makers. another great think tank runs great numbers. i'm kind of a numbers guy. 20% of americans get 75% of their income from the federal government. they are dependent. another 20% of americans get 40% of
and what will effect the debate tomorrow is mr. ryan in these comments makes the same case romney was making when he made the devastating 47% remarks. in ryan's case, he doesn't use the 47%. he picks a different figure. for him the figure is 30%. you may remember ryan himself his response to that disastrous tape of mr. romney at the fundraiser was that romney was, quote, obviously inarticulate in making his point about the proportion of americans who are dependent on the government, victims and...
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Oct 3, 2012
10/12
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so again, not casting dispurgss, but why do this the night before the debate? >> all of the discussion, all of the speculation in the political media is about how high the stakes are for mitt romney tomorrow night. so it changes the subject a little bit. it's a bright, shiny object. it diverts attention away from the huge expectations that he has. mitt romney's lost control pr an expectations perspective to reality. he's behind in the race. he has to have a good debate performance to begin to close the gap to get back in the race and to get ahead of president obama if he's to be elected president. >> so this is sort of a safe -- obviously the romney campaign is hoping they do very well. if they do well, they can pretend this story didn't happen and try to get a bounce out of the debate. if they don't do well, they can fall back on this and hope it crowds out discussion of a bad debate performance? >> i watched the tape earlier online from the speech that the president gave five years ago. i think there's almost zero chance we'll be talking about this tape on th
so again, not casting dispurgss, but why do this the night before the debate? >> all of the discussion, all of the speculation in the political media is about how high the stakes are for mitt romney tomorrow night. so it changes the subject a little bit. it's a bright, shiny object. it diverts attention away from the huge expectations that he has. mitt romney's lost control pr an expectations perspective to reality. he's behind in the race. he has to have a good debate performance to...
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Oct 6, 2012
10/12
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president obama did not win the first debate against mitt romney. whether or not you're happy about that he didn't win. but if your takeaway from this conspiracy theory in this debate is the reason the president didn't win is because mitt romney cheated, then what is the utility of that theory for you? what is the utility of that information? how do you think president obama should then prepare for the second debate? should he just do exactly what he did this past wednesday night, except keep a closer eye out for the cheating because that is the only reason he lost? i mean, it may be comforting to tell yourself this is what really went wrong here but that is not really what went wrong here and making the case that it was does not help your candidate. the worst example of this though, the invention of a comforting new parallel reality that does not mean you have to face hard truths. the worst new instance of this is how the right today responded to the new jobs numbers. today the unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% to 7.8%. it didn't drop for any of
president obama did not win the first debate against mitt romney. whether or not you're happy about that he didn't win. but if your takeaway from this conspiracy theory in this debate is the reason the president didn't win is because mitt romney cheated, then what is the utility of that theory for you? what is the utility of that information? how do you think president obama should then prepare for the second debate? should he just do exactly what he did this past wednesday night, except keep a...
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Sep 27, 2012
09/12
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should it be a matter of debate for house candidates right now? is it a matter for congress to decide? >> well, it is a matter of our national security, and how does e esident is on a course to get this done. it doesn't mean it will take all of that time. but it will be done by that time. and that is progress from where we had been. you have to remember, when president sh was president there was no plan. we had been e 6 1/2 ars wio . we routed the taliban, we did not defeat them, and then we left and went to iraq. so president obamaad to put a plan in place and a timetable to get it done. so it may not be as fast as we woulall ke, t the ct the cost of this war, in terms of our human treasure, the most important part, our young people, the casualties to their lives and to their physical well-beingnd their mental -- it's all physical, mental or not. so, yeah, i do think that this is taking to us a place where we should really understand that war, as a resolution of conflict, is an obsolete idea. and we should take the debate to a bigger place, a big
should it be a matter of debate for house candidates right now? is it a matter for congress to decide? >> well, it is a matter of our national security, and how does e esident is on a course to get this done. it doesn't mean it will take all of that time. but it will be done by that time. and that is progress from where we had been. you have to remember, when president sh was president there was no plan. we had been e 6 1/2 ars wio . we routed the taliban, we did not defeat them, and then...
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Sep 11, 2012
09/12
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it indicated he was debate prepping or maybe retooling his campaign message. mr. romney did resurface this weekend to unveil a new stump speech in which he mentioned the evils of an imaginary plan republicans have made up that president obama is somehow secretly planning to take in god we trust off our coins. he's not planning on doing that. they also had romney endorse the far right, birther congressman king. and they had romney do a photo op with pat robertson at an appearance in virginia. when buzz feed pressed the romney campaign about this sudden culture can war shift in the campaign, a spokesman insisted, quote, the subject has been the economy, it is the economy, and it will be the economy. so then why do you have him appearing with pat robertson? there's the issue right now of the romney campaign's focus. what issues they are trying to get people to decide the election on. but there's also the issue of the campaign's message. this very simple issue of whether or not the candidates know what to say when they are asked basic questions about what they are run
it indicated he was debate prepping or maybe retooling his campaign message. mr. romney did resurface this weekend to unveil a new stump speech in which he mentioned the evils of an imaginary plan republicans have made up that president obama is somehow secretly planning to take in god we trust off our coins. he's not planning on doing that. they also had romney endorse the far right, birther congressman king. and they had romney do a photo op with pat robertson at an appearance in virginia....
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Oct 10, 2012
10/12
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but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate. means romney has gone double. people maybe read a little too much into the national polls. but even in the cases where obama was ahead by 7 points in the state before, that lead has been cut to 3 or 4. maybe you have a tie now. or romney ahead. there's a sign that obama's problems were worse just after the debate on thursday and friday and it's perking back up. we'll see in the next round show the swing states tied. then democrats really will be appropriate for them to panic a little bit. right now trepidation is the most appropriate emotion for democrats. if you see e obama's lead in the swing states evaporating as well, then it really is, i think, a toss up heading into the last debates. >> nate silver, author of the new book "the signal and the noise." more broadly it's about the whole statistical universe and how to understand it. nate, congratulations. thanks for your time tonight. >> thank you. >>> pop quiz. paul ryan has either, a, just helped president obama with the nra, or b, just destroyed president oba
but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate. means romney has gone double. people maybe read a little too much into the national polls. but even in the cases where obama was ahead by 7 points in the state before, that lead has been cut to 3 or 4. maybe you have a tie now. or romney ahead. there's a sign that obama's problems were worse just after the debate on thursday and friday and it's perking back up. we'll see in the next round show the swing states tied. then democrats...